Stadion Model Commentary – August 9, 2013

As of August 9, 2013

The markets have seemed to remain stuck in neutral for the last few weeks. After rallying about 8% up to the 1680 level from June 24th to July 15th, the S&P 500 has essentially traded sideways for the better part of the last month, sitting just above 1690 today, August 9th. Though the market briefly broke above the 1700 SPX level for the first time ever early in August, we have since seen the market gradually drift back about a percent. The S&P currently sits about 8.5% above the low from June 24th. Trading volume has continuously declined over the last few weeks, as 1 month average US volume has decreased from a recent high at about 7 billion shares in late June, to a current level at just below 5.7 billion shares per day, a decrease of nearly 20% over the last month and a half.

The Stadion Domestic Trend Model continues to signal for its green market environment. With nearly all price trend and market breadth risk metrics on, the model is indicating that the long term and intermediate term uptrends remain in place and are being confirmed by the underlying data. Currently all domestic tactical portfolios are fully invested, with scaling based on portfolio risk tolerance. We will continue to monitor the markets and models for any changes in trend dynamics, will make any allocation changes as it becomes necessary.